The math is stunning. White evangelicals are now just 15% of the population. But because they vote so regularly, they are HALF of a potential electoral majority. https://t.co/gnrQ938Ddu
— Ronald Klain (@RonaldKlain) July 13, 2019
That is an incredible chart.
And one that progressives need to keep in mind for 2020.
Here is more courtesy of NYT:
In a June 25 Atlantic essay “The Electoral Time Machine That Could Re-elect Trump,” Robert P. Jones, founder and C.E.O. of the Public Religion Research Institute, showed that white evangelical Christians have successfully maintained their strength as a voting bloc despite declining as a share of the population.
The accompanying chart, covering elections from 2004 to 2018, shows that as a share of the population, white evangelical protestants have fallen precipitously from 23 percent in 2004 to 15 percent in 2018.
Over the same period, however, their share of the electorate actually grew, from 23 percent to 26 percent in 2008, and stayed at that level through the 2018 election.
What this demonstrates is that white Christians are deeply committed to challenging the ascendance of liberalism marked by the election of Barack Obama in 2008.
White evangelical Protestants remain more opposed to gay marriage than other religious constituencies, including Mormons — another political rationale for Trump to adopt policies adversarial to the LGBT community.
Trump portrays his political opponents — Democrats are “sick people” and the media are “enemies of the people” — as threats to the social order, aware that tapping into voter anger and anxiety is one of the most effective tools to drive up election turnout.
Alex Gage, head of TargetPoint Consulting, a Republican firm specializing in voter mobilization, found that “anger is a much stronger motivation” than recounting the beneficial things a politician has done.
Trump has aligned himself with two overlapping, declining constituencies that are clearly motivated by a combination of anger, resentment and anxiety — white evangelical Christians and whites without college degrees.
If Trump is to win re-election next year, he must raise the stakes for these two sets of voters so that they turn out in unprecedented numbers. Demonizing immigrants and other minorities is crucial to this strategy.
That is what we are up against in 2020.
An angry mob of religious zealots who believe that their version of America is under assault and their only hope for surivival is an orange skinned New York businessman and former reality TV star who lies with reckless abandon and vilifies any who dare speak out against him.
It does not matter if Trump is their idea of a dream candidate or not.
He is all they have and like the sheep they are they will be herded by their religious leaders in whichever direction the GOP points.
To defeat that we have to show that same determination in getting out the vote.
It does not matter if our favorite candidate wins the nomination or not, what matters is that the Democrats and liberal leaning independents show up in droves and crush the Evangelical vote under the weight of our superior numbers.