Trump disapprovers are mostly going to vote for whoever isn’t Trump, & the marginal differences by candidate (we’re talking .5-1% on vote share) are pretty darn small and impossible to disentangle from other socio-political factors (ie racial conservatism, immigration attitudes).
— G. Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris) December 28, 2019
Courtesy of The Week:
The Democratic Party looks like it might get a boost from voters who disapprove of President Trump, even if they don’t love the eventual Democratic nominee either, The Economist’s G. Elliot Morris writes.
Morris notes that one of the dominant narratives in 2016 was that the election was swung by voters who disliked both Trump and his competitor Hillary Clinton but who wound up begrudgingly siding with Trump when all was said and done. Now, though, it looks like the reverse might happen, regardless of who gets the nod to challenge Trump.
For example, Economist/YouGov polls over the last month have shown that candidates who don’t approve of Trump or Democratic frontrunner former Vice President Joe Biden would vote for Biden by a 60-point margin, while the numbers for other top contenders like Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) are similar.
I think I agree that any of the Democrats could likely beat Trump in 2020.
The only exception would be be a candidate wtih serious, as yet unknown, skeletons in their closet, or anybody who Trump could successfully smear as being scary to the average voter.
I think that last tactic is one that he would hope to use against Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren if they win the nomination, but it is unlikely to stick once they get a chance to debate him on national television.