Please let this be accurate.
Courtesy of Market Watch:
President Donald Trump could suffer a historic defeat in the fall if the economy doesn’t sharply recover from the coronavirus pandemic and the disease lingers, according to a model that has predicted the winner of the popular vote in 16 of the past 18 elections.
Oxford Economics predicts Trump would lose to Democrat Joe Biden by a margin of 65% to 35%, using a model based on the pioneering political-forecasting work of Yale economist Ray Fair.
How bad is that? William Howard Taft was the last president running for reelection to win fewer than 35% of the vote, when he finished third in 1912 behind Woodrow Wilson and Theodore Roosevelt.
The Oxford model primarily relies on key economic barometers such as inflation, the unemployment rate and inflation-adjusted disposable income to generate its forecast.
The jobless rate has soared to almost 20% unofficially from just 3.5% several months ago, and it’s unlikely to drop below 10% before the election, Oxford Economics predicts. Incomes have also taken a big whack.
Right before the pandemic, the Oxford model showed Trump handily winning reelection with 55% of the vote. But the coronavirus has changed all that.
I am a little troubled by the fact that this model showed Trump winning before the pandemic, as I did not think that was quite so likely.
And if we need a pandemic to defeat the likes of Donald Trump that says something very frightening about this country.
However, at this point, I will accept any good news that is available to us, and this clearly qualifies.