New Monmouth poll shows Biden trailing both Sanders and Warren.

By |2019-08-27T06:40:51-08:00August 27th, 2019|Categories: News|Tags: , , , , , , |14 Comments

Courtesy of Rolling Stone:

Joe Biden’s presidential campaign has been characterized largely by a string of gaffes — from saying poor kids are “just as bright as white kids,” to, most recently, confusing Vermont and New Hampshire. It looks like they may finally have caught up with him.

In a new national poll released Monday, Monmouth University found the former vice president trailing in the Democratic primary for the first time. The poll has Biden clocking in with 19 percent support, down a whopping 13 points from the 32 percent he registered when the poll was last conducted, in June. Ahead of Biden are Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who comes in at 20 percent, up 6 points from June, and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), who also comes in at 20 percent after garnering 15 percent in June.

Despite Biden’s gaffe-heavy campaign, which has included two shaky debate performances, he has long held a sizable lead over the pack of 20-plus candidates vying for the Democratic nomination. He benefitted from high name recognition, his connection to former President Barack Obama, and head-to-head polls suggesting he’d beat President Trump in a general election.

The poll, which has a margin of error of 5.7 percent, could be an aberration — RealClearPolitics currently has Biden polling at an average of 27.2 percent, compared to 16.7 for the second-place Sanders — but the results have to be concerning for Biden’s campaign, especially considering the respective surges from Sanders and Warren.

While it is true that nobody should put too much stock in a single poll it does seem to reflect a trend where Biden’s earlier lead is starting to soften and Warren continues to garner more and more support. 

I think Sanders has a stable base of support that likely will remain consistent throughout the primaries. 

In the end the determining factor will rely on Elizabeth Warren’s ability to attract new supporters, and Biden and Sanders ability to hang onto the support they already have.

It will be interesting to see if any of the other candaites can break into the top three. 

However if they do it will likely be at the cost of support for Joe Biden. 

About the Author:

This blog is dedicated to finding the truth, exposing the lies, and holding our politicians and leaders accountable when they fall far short of the promises that they have made to both my fellow Alaskans and the American people.


  1. anon August 27, 2019 at 11:32 am

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  2. Anonymously August 27, 2019 at 1:27 pm

    It was an outlier, Gryph

    New Poll Shows Biden With 13 Point Lead One Day After Cable News Polling Freakout

    A day after the Monmouth University poll showed the Democratic primary in a three-way tie with Warren, Biden, and Sanders tied at 20%, a new Morning Consult survey has Biden leading Sanders and Warren 33%-17%-15%. In early states, Monmouth University had Biden and Warren tied at 20% with Sanders at 16%. The Morning Consult poll has Biden leading Sanders and Warren 33%-17%-12%.

    What’s Going On With The Democratic Primary Polling?

    The freakout yesterday is a reminder that cable news treats every single poll as alike. The media also only tends to read the top line of the polls, and runs with the headline. The Monmouth University Poll was a much smaller poll (800 total calls) that only based its results on 298 registered and likely Democratic voters. Representative sampling means that a good pollster, like Monmouth University, is, doesn’t need a huge sample to get an accurate result, but 298 respondents is a very small sample size. The odds of generating an outlier poll are higher when the sample size is smaller. The margin of error in the Monmouth University poll was 5.7%.

    • Anonymous August 31, 2019 at 12:28 pm

      If Biden is on the ticket he’ll lose and Trump will get to replace Ginsberg.

  3. Anonymously August 27, 2019 at 1:39 pm

    Trump takes his cruelty to a new level by trying to deport sick immigrant children by taking away their medical deferment status.

    According to The Boston Globe:

    Step by malicious step, the Trump administration is turning the American immigration system into an apparatus of appalling, intentional cruelty.

    The latest case in point is a relatively small program known as “medical deferred action,” in which immigrants without legal status who are suffering from serious medical conditions are granted a reprieve from deportation so that they can have access to much-needed medical treatment in the United States.

    Trump halted the program this month, threatening to deport these patients, including children with leukemia, muscular dystrophy, or cystic fibrosis

    It is already well known that it is Trump administration policy to abuse detained children through horrific treatment in detention centers, but even sick kids can’t escape the cruelty of Donald Trump.

  4. Anonymously August 27, 2019 at 1:41 pm

    Shep Smith tosses Trump’s own words back in his face as his trade war sends the stock market into chaos

  5. Anonymously August 27, 2019 at 1:42 pm

    Trump loots millions from FEMA to send migrants back to Mexico – just as hurricane season starts

  6. Anonymously August 27, 2019 at 1:48 pm

    Barr books Trump’s hotel for $30,000 holiday party

    Experts say private, 200-person party adds to questions about attorney general’s independence from president.

    • Anonymous August 27, 2019 at 4:36 pm

      Never forget:
      President Carter had to divest himself from his fucking peanut farm.

  7. Anonymous August 27, 2019 at 6:53 pm

    I love Joe Biden and I am a left to moderate liberal. He is level headed. I remember his comments about Saudi Arabia after 9/11. He pointed out the very real inequities in Saudi Arabia regarding the role of women and the division of power between the secular and the fundamentalists who wish to prevail. That said, I read Warren’s book in the 1990s about the two-income trap in the 1990s and was impressed she brought forward the miserable situation families face. Sanders, I admit, does not impress me. So what will this ticket look like? Who will be on top? Warren or Biden?

    • nanna August 27, 2019 at 9:30 pm

      I’m currently reading Elizabeth Warren’s memoir, ‘A Fighting Chance’. I’ve noticed that “fight” is usually the way she characterizes her candidacy and I wondered about that but now I see that she has spent decades in the trenches in the fight against greedy financial institutions. She is one hell of a woman and would make an excellent POTUS. I’m hopeful that people will read any of Elizabeth Warren’s books and find out who she is and has always been.

      This is to take nothing away from Joe, and I must say I’m glad that people are finally comparing him with Donald Trump instead of Barack Obama.

  8. nanna August 27, 2019 at 8:57 pm

    It’s easy to make a poll or a graph say anything you want.

    And if something looks very wrong it usually is.

    I don’t care for Real Clear Politics at all but I understand their survey method is considered the most accurate.

  9. nanna August 29, 2019 at 3:26 am

    A word from Monmouth on that poll:

    “Every so often you will naturally have a poll that falls outside the standard margin of error. It occurs very infrequently, but every pollster who has been in this business a while recognizes that outliers happen. This appears to be one of those instances.”

    Patrick Murray
    Director of the Monmouth Univesity Poll

  10. Anonymous August 31, 2019 at 12:26 pm

    Buttigieg has also slowly risen in the polls. I sure wouldn’t mind Pete taking on Pence. He’s already called Pence a hypocrite.

    Of the field I wouldn’t mind a Warren/Buttigieg ticket with the rest in cabinet posts.

    I would be fine with our first woman president being followed by our first openly gay president.

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