— MonmouthPoll (@MonmouthPoll) August 26, 2019
Courtesy of Rolling Stone:
Joe Biden’s presidential campaign has been characterized largely by a string of gaffes — from saying poor kids are “just as bright as white kids,” to, most recently, confusing Vermont and New Hampshire. It looks like they may finally have caught up with him.
In a new national poll released Monday, Monmouth University found the former vice president trailing in the Democratic primary for the first time. The poll has Biden clocking in with 19 percent support, down a whopping 13 points from the 32 percent he registered when the poll was last conducted, in June. Ahead of Biden are Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who comes in at 20 percent, up 6 points from June, and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), who also comes in at 20 percent after garnering 15 percent in June.
Despite Biden’s gaffe-heavy campaign, which has included two shaky debate performances, he has long held a sizable lead over the pack of 20-plus candidates vying for the Democratic nomination. He benefitted from high name recognition, his connection to former President Barack Obama, and head-to-head polls suggesting he’d beat President Trump in a general election.
The poll, which has a margin of error of 5.7 percent, could be an aberration — RealClearPolitics currently has Biden polling at an average of 27.2 percent, compared to 16.7 for the second-place Sanders — but the results have to be concerning for Biden’s campaign, especially considering the respective surges from Sanders and Warren.
While it is true that nobody should put too much stock in a single poll it does seem to reflect a trend where Biden’s earlier lead is starting to soften and Warren continues to garner more and more support.
I think Sanders has a stable base of support that likely will remain consistent throughout the primaries.
In the end the determining factor will rely on Elizabeth Warren’s ability to attract new supporters, and Biden and Sanders ability to hang onto the support they already have.
It will be interesting to see if any of the other candaites can break into the top three.
However if they do it will likely be at the cost of support for Joe Biden.