Do you agree?
Courtesy of Salon:
Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., told CNN during an interview on Sunday that he believes he has a “very strong chance” of being the Democratic presidential nominee in 2020 — and, eventually, of defeating President Donald Trump.
“What I think is that four years ago, you know, there were only two of us in the race, and we split the vote about 50% each. This time we’ve got a whole lot of candidates and I don’t think anybody is going to reach 50%,” Sanders told CNN’s Dana Bash during an appearance on “State of the Union” on Sunday. His comments referred to a recent survey which found that former Vice President Joe Biden is ahead in the crucial Iowa caucus with 24 percent of the vote. Sanders is running in second place with 16 percent of the vote.
Sanders argued that he has an “excellent” chance of winning in the Iowa caucus next year but did not go so far as to say that he would win more half of the votes that will be case.
“We’re not going to get 50% of the vote in Iowa. I don’t think anybody will,” Sanders told Bash.
The Vermont senator added, “I think we have a very strong chance of being the candidate who will defeat the worst president in the modern history of this country, Donald Trump.”
Much of Sanders support in the polls right now might be the result of name recognition, so as the other candidates become more well known they might chip away at that over time.
Will Marshall, president and founder of the Progressive Policy Institute also suggests that Sanders may not be electable in swing states where his socialism tag may serve as an albatross around his neck.
He also points out something very important:
“I do think he got a lot of support [in 2016] that was in protest of the Democratic establishment, perhaps Hillary Clinton personally. The question is whether Bernie as a free-standing proposition is as powerful as Bernie as a place to lodge a protest against the things you don’t like about your party. So we’ll see,” Marshall told Salon in April.
A vote for Sanders in the primary was often a protest vote against the whole political establishment, but with a number of candidates relatively new to politics, he might have some competition in that area.
He is also running with candidates, a number of them female, who share many of his policy positions, and some positions even more progressive.
So this time around Sanders will not be running against an establishment figure who half of the country reviled, but instead against fresh new faces who are just now introducing themselves to the American people.
In a field like that how well to we really think Sanders will do?